Column A does not include "Origin: Steam Support" nor Duplicate copies
Column B does not include "Origin: Steam Support" nor Duplicate copies
Column C does not include "Quality: Strange" nor Duplicate copies, and only includes "Origin: Found in Crate"
Column C is an underestimate because
An underestimate of a number C means an overestimate of a number 1/C.
That means, the calculated unusual unbox rate is an Upper Bound.
Keep in mind that old crates mainly contain Paints, and hence their upper bounds are higher. The significantly higher upper bound does not necessarily imply that actual rate is higher.
Also keep in mind that Strange Parts were introduced in the March 22, 2012 Patch.
The last "Paint Crate" was removed from the drop system in the June 23, 2011 Patch.
A | B | C | A/(A+B+C) | ||
distinct original_id range | Unusual | Strange / Strange Festive | Hats/Weapons/Haunted (Huge Underestimate) | Unusual Drop Rate (Upper bound) | Convert original_id to Date |
850,000,000 | 190 | 23,304 | 8,557 | 0.59% | |
840,000,000 | 526 | 66,263 | 20,960 | 0.60% | May 17, 2012 Patch |
830,000,000 | 538 | 68,605 | 19,801 | 0.60% | |
820,000,000 | 618 | 70,957 | 18,194 | 0.69% | |
810,000,000 | 628 | 76,285 | 17,606 | 0.66% | April 27, 2012 Patch |
800,000,000 | 616 | 71,902 | 15,798 | 0.70% | |
790,000,000 | 565 | 72,297 | 15,126 | 0.64% | |
780,000,000 | 552 | 70,889 | 14,090 | 0.65% | |
770,000,000 | 588 | 73,609 | 13,782 | 0.67% | March 28, 2012 Patch |
760,000,000 | 612 | 77,791 | 12,828 | 0.67% | March 22, 2012 Patch |
750,000,000 | 539 | 65,846 | 9,915 | 0.71% | |
740,000,000 | 546 | 69,546 | 9,915 | 0.68% | |
730,000,000 | 572 | 74,856 | 10,791 | 0.66% | |
720,000,000 | 552 | 75,996 | 10,199 | 0.64% | February 23, 2012 Patch |
710,000,000 | 521 | 76,321 | 9,483 | 0.60% | |
700,000,000 | 521 | 68,952 | 8,927 | 0.66% | |
690,000,000 | 432 | 58,343 | 7,946 | 0.65% | February 2, 2012 Patch |
680,000,000 | 443 | 51,361 | 7,178 | 0.75% | |
670,000,000 | 466 | 52,644 | 7,014 | 0.78% | |
660,000,000 | 444 | 51,771 | 6,832 | 0.75% | |
650,000,000 | 424 | 48,705 | 6,481 | 0.76% | January 11, 2012 Patch |
640,000,000 | 652 | 44,265 | 62,751 | 0.61% | |
630,000,000 | 815 | 45,836 | 76,115 | 0.66% | |
620,000,000 | 675 | 34,692 | 82,015 | 0.58% | |
610,000,000 | 857 | 38,398 | 115,327 | 0.55% | |
600,000,000 | 486 | 47,744 | 13,870 | 0.78% | December 15, 2011 Patch |
590,000,000 | 574 | 62,284 | 6,916 | 0.82% | December 1, 2011 Patch |
580,000,000 | 517 | 50,335 | 6,266 | 0.91% | |
570,000,000 | 502 | 48,687 | 6,534 | 0.90% | |
560,000,000 | 663 | 64,332 | 9,313 | 0.89% | |
550,000,000 | 665 | 66,618 | 10,274 | 0.86% | |
540,000,000 | 680 | 68,806 | 9,882 | 0.86% | October 25, 2011 Patch |
530,000,000 | 719 | 64,095 | 9,500 | 0.97% | |
520,000,000 | 624 | 66,645 | 9,642 | 0.81% | |
510,000,000 | 556 | 68,569 | 8,462 | 0.72% | October 13, 2011 Patch |
500,000,000 | 611 | 76,207 | 8,869 | 0.71% | |
490,000,000 | 623 | 79,905 | 9,088 | 0.70% | |
480,000,000 | 643 | 81,565 | 9,567 | 0.70% | |
470,000,000 | 639 | 76,938 | 9,403 | 0.73% | |
460,000,000 | 624 | 83,632 | 9,839 | 0.66% | |
450,000,000 | 607 | 79,351 | 9,157 | 0.68% | |
440,000,000 | 496 | 64,632 | 7,733 | 0.68% | |
430,000,000 | 520 | 65,408 | 8,159 | 0.70% | |
420,000,000 | 444 | 54,057 | 7,798 | 0.71% | August 18, 2011 Patch |
410,000,000 | 483 | 51,800 | 7,913 | 0.80% | |
400,000,000 | 433 | 53,497 | 8,319 | 0.70% | |
390,000,000 | 468 | 56,588 | 8,624 | 0.71% | |
380,000,000 | 504 | 53,235 | 8,788 | 0.81% | |
370,000,000 | 535 | 63,066 | 10,820 | 0.72% | |
360,000,000 | 612 | 50,382 | 30,629 | 0.75% | July 12, 2011 Patch |
350,000,000 | 651 | 35,203 | 37,559 | 0.89% | |
340,000,000 | 610 | 34,736 | 35,783 | 0.86% | July 1, 2011 Patch |
330,000,000 | 410 | 37,577 | 12,173 | 0.82% | |
320,000,000 | 449 | 10,486 | 16,320 | 1.65% | June 23, 2011 Patch |
310,000,000 | 307 | 0 | 12,961 | 2.31% | |
300,000,000 | 413 | 0 | 17,722 | 2.28% | |
290,000,000 | 573 | 0 | 21,121 | 2.64% | |
280,000,000 | 1,867 | 0 | 20,888 | 8.20% | |
270,000,000 | 2,481 | 0 | 21,380 | 10.40% | March 23, 2011 Patch |
260,000,000 | 1,513 | 0 | 18,285 | 7.64% | March 15, 2011 Patch |
250,000,000 | 1,219 | 0 | 17,940 | 6.36% | |
240,000,000 | 1,172 | 0 | 20,176 | 5.49% | |
230,000,000 | 956 | 0 | 21,217 | 4.31% | |
220,000,000 | 975 | 0 | 24,255 | 3.86% | |
210,000,000 | 1,244 | 0 | 68,244 | 1.79% | |
200,000,000 | 1,341 | 0 | 87,524 | 1.51% | December 17, 2010 Patch |
190,000,000 | 542 | 0 | 15,742 | 3.33% | December 10, 2010 Patch |
180,000,000 | 475 | 0 | 19,491 | 2.38% | |
170,000,000 | 415 | 0 | 21,716 | 1.88% | |
160,000,000 | 377 | 0 | 19,350 | 1.91% | October 27, 2010 Patch |
150,000,000 | 334 | 0 | 16,783 | 1.95% | |
140,000,000 | 235 | 0 | 5,181 | 4.34% | September 30, 2010 Patch |
Total | 46,679 | 3,245,814 | 1,384,807 | 4,677,300 | Before May 23, 2012 |
Probability of getting at least 1 Unusual in 100 unboxing:
P(At least 1 Unusual | 100 unboxing) = 1 - (1 - 0.01)^100 = 1 - 0.99^100 = 63.40%
Probability of getting at least 1 Unusual in 100 unboxing:
P(At least 1 Unusual | 100 unboxing) = 1 - (1 - 0.00666...)^100 = 1 - 0.99333...^100 = 48.77%
Probability of getting at least 1 Unusual in 100 unboxing:
P(At least 1 Unusual | 100 unboxing) = 1 - (1 - 0.005)^100 = 1 - 0.995^100 = 39.42%
Unless the majority of Unusuals (>40%) reside in Private Backpacks while the majority of Uncrated Items (>90%) reside in Public Backpacks, the unusual rate is definitely not 1%.
Based on current data provided by Backpack.tf, 46,337 unusuals unboxed before May 23, 2012 are known.
http://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Talk:Mann_Co._Supply_Crate#Unusual_drop_rate
News (March 30, 2013) News (March 26, 2013) |
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